AI to predict premature death - Article

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AI to predict premature death

Akash Nayak

@ Akash Nayak

Akash Nayak

| 24 Apr 2019

The team of healthcare data scientists and doctors have developed and tested a system of computer-based 'machine learning' algorithms to predict the risk of early death due to chronic disease in a largely middle-aged population.

They found this AI system was very accurate in its predictions and performed better than the current standard approach to prediction developed by human experts.

The team used health data from just over half a million people aged between 40 and 69 recruited to the UK Biobank between 2006 and 2010 and followed up until 2016.

The AI machine learning models used in the new study are known as 'random forest' and 'deep learning'. These were pitched against the traditionally-used 'Cox regression' prediction model based on age and gender -- found to be the least accurate at predicting mortality -- and also a multivariate Cox model which worked better but tended to over-predict risk.

Researchers predict that AI will play a vital part in the development of future tools capable of delivering personalised medicine, tailoring risk management to individual patients. Further research requires verifying and validating these AI algorithms in other population groups and exploring ways to implement these systems into routine healthcare.